A New Perspective for Urban Development Boundary Delineation Based on the MCR Model and CA-Markov Model

In order to control the development of urban space, it is important explore scientific methods provide a reference for regional territorial space planning. On basis minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model and cellular automaton (CA)-Markov model, we constructed new technical method delineating boundaries, exploring temporal spatial distribution characteristic land use in Wuhan from 2010 2020 through nighttime remote sensing images, simulating boundaries 2025 2035. The results show that: (1) scales City’s built-up areas 2010, 2015, were 500 km2, 566.13 885.11 respectively, trends expansion run east southeast, (2) on MCR boundary scale City 2025, 2030, 2035 perspective actual supply will be 903.52 937.48 1021.44 based CA-Markov ideal demand 912.75 946.40 1041.91 respectively. By combining two methods, determined 901.62 944.39 1015.36 km2 as 2035, According principle supply–demand balance, delineated by integration which line with trend growing cities, could optimize pattern; solve contradiction between development, farmland protection, ecological protection; methodological decision-making planning practice.